1/20/2024 0 Comments Past weather washington dcIn these studies, heat exposure is typically defined as either (a) temperature measured on the day of the belief report, (b) subjective evaluations of recent heat, or (c) abnormally high temperatures over a period relative to long-term averages. These associations have been found with respect to both objective weather observations and subjective heat perceptions 8 and across shorter and longer time scales (for the cumulative impact of heat over timescales like months, see 12). A comprehensive meta-analysis of 73 papers found some studies showing evidence of a connection but many others producing null findings, especially among those with methodologies best designed to estimate a causal effect 6.Ī range of credible studies have found that recent exposure to hot weather increases people’s confidence that climate change is occurring and concern about its implications 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Researchers have attacked this question from many different angles, examining various types of weather events, multiple measures of experience (subjective vs measured), and a variety of different methodological approaches. The connection between weather experience and climate beliefs has received ample research attention. The question is then: Does the number of record heat days exert an additional impact on climate beliefs than hot weather alone does not? We show that the number of record heat days in a county is minimally correlated with other important cues for climate change beliefs, including average heat levels, number of extreme heat days, or extreme weather events such as floods, tornadoes, or hurricanes (see “ Methods” for this analysis). Meanwhile, a given hot day only becomes a record heat day by happenstance, depending on whether it corresponds to the precise date of other heat waves in previous years. At the same time, record-breaking heat provides a ready-made topic for water-cooler conversations. When an individual steps outside, they can certainly perceive extreme heat on their skin, but they cannot know whether a hot day is the hottest on record for their area on a particular date unless they have already checked the news. We define a record heat day as a day when the high temperature in a locality is higher than any other high temperature on record for that locality and calendar day.įor the purpose of understanding the role of weather experience in climate beliefs, record heat days have three desirable characteristics: (a) they are not physically tangible, (b) they are not directly experienced, and (c) they occur idiosyncratically. Therefore, in this paper, we contribute to the literature on weather experience and climate perceptions by isolating an aspect of climate that is not physically tangible but is socially salient: record heat days. However, studies on the relation between weather and beliefs about climate change has found some evidence that personal experience of hot weather, storms, and floods can persuade individuals that climate change is real 5, 6. We close with recommendations for media framing of local record-breaking heat events and call for more research on how media outlets cover record-breaking heat.Įven though climate scientists have used counts of record heat days to quantify the degree of climate change in a certain area 1, 2, 3, 4, we know little about the impact of record heat days, which involve a mathematical rather than a sensory determination, on subjective climate perceptions such as the sense that the weather is now hotter than before. This effect is stronger for populations that are more skeptical of climate science, including Republicans, as well as respondents with weaker beliefs in climate change and more frequent consumption of conservative media. Our estimates suggest that exposure to sixteen record heat days predicts roughly the same difference in excessive heat perceptions as between the average Democrat respondent and a political independent. Matching historical heat records to survey data from the United States, we find that each record heat day in a county in 2022 increases perceptions that excessive heat is getting worse, even when controlling for average temperatures, the number of extreme heat days, and demographic factors. We ask whether a high temperature day that breaks local heat records-which is a mathematical construct not directly accessible to the senses-has additional impacts on perceptions of worsening heat, above and beyond that of the absolute temperatures. From heat waves to hurricanes, tangible weather experiences have been shown to strengthen personal belief in climate change.
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